DRAM Contract Pricing: Analyst Outlook Turns Sharply Bullish
Jefferies is forecasting contract DRAM prices to surge roughly 50% in Q3 2026, with a further 45% gain projected into 2027. TrendForce has independently raised its Q3 and Q4 DRAM contract price expectations, a development seen as a direct benefit to Micron and other DRAM manufacturers. Meanwhile, Digitimes reports that memory suppliers are actively locking down buyers under multi-period contracts as prices continue surging in 2H26. Procurement teams on open-market or spot purchasing should be aware of growing supplier leverage.
June Pricing Momentum and Structural Demand Shifts
Chosun reports that DRAM price growth slowed somewhat in June amid shifting AI demand patterns, though this appears to reflect a pause rather than a reversal. TechInsights argues this cycle looks structurally different from prior DRAM downturns, citing sustained AI-driven demand as a floor for pricing. NAND flash wafer contract pricing for June is covered in TrendForce's latest research release; ByteWatch will update the SSD index as that data is integrated.
HBM Capacity Is Crowding Out Commodity Supply
The dominant supply-side story remains HBM. Samsung's HBM4 reached $1 billion in sales within its first 130 days, and Samsung is now expanding HBM4 production capacity in response to AI demand. SK Hynix, by contrast, is reportedly slowing its own HBM4 ramp while still holding a dominant market position. Critically, CipherDot notes that HBM production is consuming fab capacity that would otherwise serve commodity DRAM, which is a structural constraint on DDR4/DDR5 supply expansion. Buyers should factor fab-level capacity diversion into their H2 volume planning.
Indexes reflect median $/GB across in-stock SKUs tracked by ByteWatch. Forward pricing commentary is based on third-party analyst sources and does not constitute a procurement guarantee.