NAND / SSD
The clearest forward signal this period comes from the controller side: Phison's CEO has stated that NAND supply will not catch up with demand for approximately four years, an unusually long-horizon warning for a component supplier. That view is reinforced by TrendForce data, which forecast a 70–75% NAND price rise in Q2 2026, with AI servers absorbing 48% of total NAND supply — a share confirmed separately by Counterpoint Research, which reports that server-led eSSD units now represent 48% of NAND shipments. On the competitive side, YMTC has entered the global top three in that same Counterpoint data. Procurement teams should note that NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform is also being flagged as a further demand vector tightening TLC NAND availability.
DRAM / DDR5
The HBM ramp is the dominant structural force reshaping DRAM allocation. Both Samsung and SK Hynix are committing extraordinary capital — SK Hynix's total fab investment figure stands at $720 billion — but analysts warn that HBM wafer priority risks reducing commodity DRAM supply in H2. Samsung's chip chief has cautioned against complacency even after the HBM4 design win, and TrendForce is watching HBM4 ramp timing as the key variable for general DRAM pricing in the second half. SK Hynix is also scouting US wafer sites amid concerns that "chipflation" could propagate into end-device pricing globally.
Procurement Posture
No SKU-level price movement to act on today. However, the convergence of a multi-year NAND supply gap, HBM crowding out commodity DRAM capacity, and AI server demand locking up an outsized share of total fab output suggests this cycle has more structural staying power than typical memory booms. Teams with flexible contract windows should consider whether spot exposure on SSD and DDR5 remains appropriate into 2027.