DRAM & NAND Pricing Backdrop
August contract prices for both DRAM and NAND hit record highs, though slowing rates of gain have renewed concerns about a potential peak. TrendForce has raised its Q3 2026 PC DRAM price forecast to 18–23% quarter-on-quarter, while simultaneously trimming the mobile DRAM outlook to 8–13%, per Goldman Sachs reporting. A key dynamic driving PC DRAM prices: wafer capacity is being reallocated toward HBM, tightening supply for legacy PC DRAM and pushing those prices to record levels. NAND prices have reportedly surged ~70%, with Samsung and SK Hynix leading that move, according to Chosunbiz.
One structural note worth flagging for procurement teams: spot memory prices are reportedly running approximately 4× contract prices, a spread that analysts argue is inconsistent with typical cycle-peak behavior — suggesting further contract price convergence may lie ahead.
HBM Capacity Race Intensifies
The HBM supply picture remains the dominant upstream story. Micron is reportedly targeting 100,000 HBM wafers/month by end-2026, up roughly 60K from current levels, per TrendForce — a move confirmed across multiple outlets and sources. Samsung, meanwhile, has doubled its HBM market share to approximately 33%, narrowing the gap with SK Hynix, per Seoul Economic Daily and Counterpoint Research data.
Procurement Outlook
With indexes flat today, there is no immediate action signal at the SKU level. That said, the upstream environment — record contract prices, constrained PC DRAM supply due to HBM reallocation, and a widening spot-to-contract spread — warrants close monitoring. Buyers locking long-term contracts in this environment should weigh the risk that spot premiums compress if HBM capacity expansions ease the broader supply squeeze by Q4 2026.